Essay 17

3. Over the last several decades, the composition of the Democratic and Republican parties has changes in important ways. A major partisan shift has occurred in the South, but other demographic changes have also been identified. Changes in party composition are reflected at different rates in presidential elections than in congressional elections.

(a) Identifying one specific tread of evident in the figure above.

There was always a larger percentage of southern state seats in United States House held by Democrats compared to the percentage of southern state electoral votes for a Democratic presidential candidate.

(b) Choose two of the following and use each to explain why southern voters from 1948 to 2000 were electing Democratic candidates to Congress more frequently than choosing Democratic candidates for the presidency.

Incumbency Advantage is an advantage gained by someone already in a position, as compared to newcomers. Incumbency Advantage helped Democratic candidates get elected into Congress because they may have already had that position prior to being reelected. Unlike the presidency, Congressmen have to opportunity to be reelected for as long as they want to run for the position where the president can only serve two terms.  
Gerrymandering is a practice that attempts to establish a political advantage for a particular party or group by manipulating district boundaries to create partisan advantaged districts. Gerrymandering was used in the southern states between 1948-2000 to have more Democratic candidates elected into Congress. However, this strategy can not work with the presidency because each state is either declared as Democratic or Republican.  

(c) Several other changes in party composition have emerged in the past few decades. Select three of the following groups and for each explain how parties have changed in composition with respect to that group.

Catholics tend to be anti gay and anti abortion but as for party affiliation they tend to split directly down the middle. Catholics used to vote more Republican but has now grown to be more divided among other beliefs.
Labor Union Members have always been thought of as strongly Democratic. This stereotype is still partly true and some labor union members do still tend to vote more Democratic. However, there is a swing group that will change which way they vote depending on the election.
Women tend to lean Democratic when they vote but are still very split just as Catholics are. Republicans tend to be more traditional when it comes to the women's role in the family setting. Over the past generations as women have gained more freedoms they have gravitated towards voting more Democratic because they feel that they have more support from this party. Although it may seem that women vote very Democratic it is still close to being split directly, but leaning more towards Democratic.